No III (2024)

The author analyzes the transformation of the Ukrainian economy in the conditions of the confrontation with Russia. Special attention is payed to the traditional locomotives of the Ukrainian economy – the metallurgy and the agriculture. The conclusion is made that, in spite of the collapse in 2022, the trends of 2023 were positive. The metallurgy and Ukrainian export were particularly severely damaged. But the opening of the European market led to the emergence of new logistics for the export flows, so the export of agricultural goods is still sufficient. The prospects of the Ukrainian economy under the military confrontation are not clear.

The next presidential elections will be held in Belarus in 2025. The very fact of their holding mobilizes the ranks of the Belarusian opposition, whose activities are aimed at replacing the existing political regime in the republic. Representatives of the opposition do not hide their desire to carry out an armed coup in the Republic of Belarus, aimed at severing ties with Russia and destroying the Union State. Currently, the issue of forming a consolidated strategy of opposition forces is being raised among Belarusian political emigrants.

Among the hotbeds of confrontation that characterize the modern sphere of internal political, interstate and regional interactions in the post-Soviet space, attention is drawn to the acute contradictions that have existed for many years between the leadership of the Republic of Moldova and the Gagauz autonomy. A new round of tension in relations between Chisinau and Comrat began to unfold with the start of the Russian special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. Against the backdrop of an increasingly aggravated military-political situation and in the context of a tightening of the anti-Russian position of the Moldovan authorities in Gagauzia, autonomist sentiments have again become relevant. The Moldovan European Union membership referendum, scheduled for October 2024, gave Gagauz politicians reason to fear for the fate of Moldovan statehood. In turn, the head of the autonomy, Evgenia Gutsul, appealing to Russia for economic and political support is a geopolitical challenge for official Chisinau and its Western sponsors.

Since the Republic of Armenia declared independence in 1991, the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC) has been a fundamental part of the state apparatus, playing a significant role in societal life and influencing both domestic politics and international relations. However, the Velvet Revolution of 2018 brought about a sharp conflict between the civil and ecclesiastical authorities. This conflict is both ideological and cultural in nature. The current Armenian government seeks closer integration with the West, promoting the adoption of “universal values of Western civilization.” This shift aims to transform Armenian society into a community of individuals (“proud citizens of Armenia”) with expanded freedom of expression, including religious equality and the acceptance of various faiths and practices. Such changes threaten to diminish the AAC’s historically pivotal role in the life of the Armenian nation. The AAC, like other traditional churches, advocates for the preservation of traditional values. The future of the Armenian nation will be shaped by global transformations as well as the ongoing domestic political developments, particularly the population’s reception of “universal Western values” versus a path rooted in Armenia’s own cultural and historical legacy.

The war that broke out in October 2023 in the Middle East between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, caused a wide resonance around the world, including countries outside the Middle East. The post-Soviet space was no exception: the Middle East aggravation echoed both in the former republics of the USSR, where most of the population is Muslim, and in those states where there is no Muslim majority. Within the framework of this article, the topic of the impact of events in the Middle East on the politics of the post–Soviet countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus is considered - both from a foreign policy and domestic political point of view, especially since both of these aspects often turn out to be closely interrelated. This is especially true in the republics of Central Asia, where the authorities were forced to balance between attempts to maintain beneficial relations with Israel for these countries, but at the same time maintain the opportunity to position themselves as part of the Islamic world. In the case of the post-Soviet South Caucasus, the greatest impact of the conflict in Gaza was on Azerbaijan (the only one of the three Transcaucasian republics where the majority of the population is Muslim). At the same time, unlike the Central Asian states, the response of Azerbaijani residents “from below” to the Middle East war was not so noticeable, while foreign policy influence acquired clearly defined characteristics related both to the special relations that Baku maintains with Israel and to the ambitions of such regional powers as Turkey and Iran.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War led to a change in the regional balance of power in the South Caucasus. Turkey significantly strengthened its footprint in the region through diplomatic and military-political support of Azerbaijan in the conflict. Iran, on the other hand, tried to take a cautious stance in the face of tensions, prioritizing regional stability. After the end of the 44-day war, Iran's relations with Azerbaijan, as Turkey's closest ally, were marked by discord, with periods of escalation and de-escalation. In general, the South Caucasus as a region of strategic importance for both Iran and Turkey will continue to be a field of rivalry and clash of interests between the two powers.

The article is devoted to the analysis of the peculiarities of diplomacy of the first head of Kazakhstan N.A.Nazarbayev and the current President of the Republic of Kazakhstan K.-J.K. Tokayev on the example of the development of cooperation between Kazakhstan and key actors of the modern system of international relations and partners in the Central Asian region. The continuity of the foreign policy course of the republic aimed at the formation of favorable conditions for ensuring sustainable political and economic development of the state is noted. The preservation of the main principle of the country’s foreign policy is emphasized – multi-vector, thanks to which the progressive cooperation of the republic with almost all countries of the world is ensured. It is stated that this multi-vector policy has become a visiting card of the diplomacy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in recent years. The identified differences in the diplomacy of the two presidents make it possible to identify issues that require a certain assessment and, equally important, to make appropriate point changes.

One of the new and promising directions in the study of international relations and world politics is anthropology. The anthropology of international relations, based on the history and sciences studying the behavior of a social organism, provides an opportunity for researchers and practitioners to understand the location of a social subject in a social space, as well as its social viability, which facilitates the consideration of the system of international relations and the behavior of its elements. The anthropological analysis of international relations is subject to specification by spheres, which was done in the article. The article examines the position of the Central Asian region in the system of political interactions based on the geo-economic approach. For a more substantive analysis, transport communications were chosen as an element of spatial analysis. Within the framework of the anthropological approach, Central Asia appears to researchers as a subject with spatial power based on the transit potential of territories in the global community.