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No 5 (2025)
International relations
The Geopolitical Transformation of the Arctic and Denmark's Strategy in the Context of Global Competition
Abstract
The geopolitical situation in the Arctic, focusing on Greenland's role and Denmark's strategy amid global competition is studied. The aim is to assess the impact of U.S. initiatives, declining Chinese investment, and Greenland's internal political dynamics on Denmark's policy. The methodology involves qualitative analysis of open sources, including official documents and scholarly publications. Findings highlight Denmark's efforts to strengthen Greenland's autonomy through sustainable development, green energy, and support for indigenous peoples while balancing external pressures and alliance commitments. Denmark's Arctic Council chairmanship program (2025–2027) emphasizes environmental and social priorities, integrating traditional knowledge and scientific approaches. The study contributes to understanding the Arctic's power balance, revealing new facets of Danish strategy. Its practical significance lies in providing data for analyzing regional security and sustainable development.
7-16
Scenarios for Russia’s Future in Eurasia
Abstract
The Stimson Center based in Washington, D.C., undertook a project to consider plausible futures for the Russian Federation in Eurasia over the five-to-fifteen-year period to 2040. Three cycles of research were carried out, each from a different thematic or geographic angle. Accordingly, the first cycle scenarios were developed from the perspective of the Global South; the second – the Central Asia and Caucasus; the third – the Middle East. In almost all the 12 scenarios, there was a consensus that 15 years from now Russia will remain a great power in Eurasia. A withering or fragmentation of Russia was not predicted. Unsurprisingly, views differed on Russia’s future relationship with China and the positioning of Russia in the future US-China dynamic. Differences arose over who would be the other power players in Eurasia. One scenario envisaged Islamic states becoming a pillar opposite the other great powers, but that view was not shared widely. Non-Western experts saw the West playing a decreasing economic and military role in Eurasia. Trumpism would likely outlast the President’s second term and this would feed competition among the great powers. One of the disturbing findings is that nuclear weapons proliferation is likely in Eurasia by 2040. The research also showed Russia’s resiliency as a global player but highlighted the difficult choices facing it from overdependence on hydrocarbons to technological innovation challenges and weakening population growth without immigration. With Russia slow to focus on climate as a driver of change for the rest of the world, the global shift toward a greener world economy will place unique challenges on Russian leaders in the coming decades. Russia had the capacity to be a “renewables” giant but would probably require foreign investment to accomplish. Still, Russia had been better at positioning itself for a multipolar future than Western powers.
17-28
Japan's Foreign Policy Priorities during Shinzo Abe's Premiership and the Eurasian Direction
Abstract
The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Eurasian diplomacy related to the “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” and “Asia's Dream: Connecting the Pacific and Eurasia” initiatives is analyzed. Both concepts were based on expectations that the United States would continue its course of “promoting democracy” in Asia. However, these calculations proved to be incorrect. Despite the failure of the first initiative, Abe repeated a similar approach during his second term. The authors examine why Japan did not revise this ineffective strategy: was it constrained by American frameworks or attempting to overcome them through Abe's diplomacy? Were alternative approaches explored? The study identifies the reasons for this strategic persistence in Japan's political culture, where loyalty to the U.S. as a post-war ally remains an unconditional imperative. This leads to the so-called Madame Butterfly syndrome – recognizing the deadlock without revising the course. Abe's Eurasian policy was instrumental, aimed at containing China, which limited its effectiveness despite significant untapped cooperation potential.
29–42
ECONOMIC STUDIES
Factors of Destabilization of the Modern World Monetary and Financial System
Abstract
The crisis of international monetary and financial relations, which has worsened against the backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts, is a natural reaction of sovereign states to threats to national security in the context of uncertainty of global development. The purpose of this article is to systematize the factors of destabilization of the world monetary and financial system (WMFS), as well as possible ways to restore it through formation of a more sustainable and inclusive global financial architecture. Particular attention is paid to the study of the reasons causing gaps in cooperation between countries, including political conflicts, economic instability and strengthening nationalistic sentiments. The consequences of the WMFS fragmentation for the global economy and possible conditions for restoring and strengthening international dialogue in the monetary and financial sphere are determined. The research methodology is based on systemic approach that allows to analyze a number of possible scenarios for further weakening of the global economy, depending on the degree of fragmentation of the global monetary and financial system. An unfavorable development scenario is considered – “cold economic war 2.0”, according to which the destruction of the concept of free trade could lead to a significant increase of costs of international cooperation. A conclusion is made about the extreme instability of the world economy at present, its stabilization depends both on coordinated actions of a number of countries and on random events.
43–53
The Baltic States' Foreign Trade: Increasing Dependency on the EU
Abstract
The subject of the study is the EU's place in foreign trade of the Baltic states over the past decade. The increasing dependence of the Baltic States on the single internal market of the European Union and its restrictive foreign economic policy is emphasized. The main shift is the diversion of the Baltic states from trade with Russia, gradual during the period under review and swift over the past three years, in favor of the EU, other post-Soviet countries, the United States and energy exporters from the Middle East. This reorientation, being the result of special efforts by official Brussels in order to reduce the mythical risks of so-called dependence on Russia, according to the study, aggravated the costs of the Baltic states' membership in the EU. The loss in competition to European allies is reflected in the deepening negative trade balance. Just as ten years ago, a significant place in imports is played by fossil energy resources, despite the EU subsidies for green transformation projects. The conclusion of the study is that the hypothesis of the formation of a “dependent market economy” as the development model of the Baltic states is confirmed by trade statistics. The Baltic countries are “drifting” under the influence of the “currents” shaped by the EU's economic policy, partly balancing the costs of membership with transfers from the EU budget. Given that today representatives of the Baltic states hold many senior positions in the EU institutions, it can be expected that the problem of dependency will deepen drastically, up to a reform of the EU financial resources system and an increase in the burden of the donor states.
54-65
ВОКРУГ МИГРАЦИИ
Right-Wing Terrorism in the European Union: Current State of the Threat and its Communication Aspect
Abstract
The state of the threat of right-wing terrorism in the European Union is determined and its communication aspect is highlighted. The current stage of this phenomenon is characterized by the use of various means of online communication that continue to evolve. These means include the growing utilization of generative artificial intelligence tools in political propaganda. It has been established that along with a decrease in the frequency and lethality of right-wing terrorist attacks in the EU, the social base of this branch of terrorism is growing. One of the most pressing challenges in the near future will be the increasingly frequent use of generative artificial intelligence to create and disseminate messages of right-wing terrorist propaganda. Among the primary sources used for this research are reports by Europol on the current situation and changes in the phenomenon of terrorism within the European Union, as well as media materials.
66–79
German Migration Policy: Old Problems and New Challenges
Abstract
Important problems of the formation and implementation of the FRG policy towards migrants under the governments of O. Scholz and F. Merz are considered. The migration issue becomes the subject of heated political and public discussions. It comes to the forefront of the election campaign and largely determines the outcome of early parliamentary elections. The measures taken by the Scholz cabinet to attract qualified specialists to Germany, facilitate their employment and improve conditions of their stay in the country are examined in detail. It is shown that the attempts of the so-called “traffic light coalition” to counter the influx of illegal immigrants were inconsistent and mainly represented a belated reaction to the increasing frequency of terrorist attacks. The migration policy provisions outlined in the coalition agreement of the Merz government are analyzed. The conclusion is that the FRG will continue to try to pursue a tough course towards the migration issues that will remain one of the most important areas in the domestic policy agenda of the Merz government. It is predicted that in the foreseeable future this policy will become the subject of new disputes and disagreements between the coalition partners. It is noted that that the problems associated with migration are unlikely to be solved solely by force. On the other hand, if the new government’s efforts to counter illegal immigrants will not lead to tangible results, the political influence of right-wing and left-wing populists will grow.
80-95
Политические исследования
Symbolic Politics: Facets of Scientific Discourse
Abstract
Symbolic politics as a category of political science that has gone through a difficult path of development. Three facets of scientific discourse on symbolic politics are highlighted. The first concerns the definition of the concept of “symbol”, the second describes symbolic forms of politics, and the third considers symbolic politics as a purposeful, conscious activity. The relationship between these discourses is substantiated and the problems of conceptualizing symbolic politics as a special type of activity arising from underestimation of this relationship are identified. The first problem stems from the difficulties in defining the concept of “symbol” and lies in identifying symbolic politics among other types of policies associated with the production of various semantic constructions, with propaganda, PR, framing, post-truth, etc. The second problem is associated with underestimation of methodological discourse and lies in the ambiguity of determining the status of symbolic politics, whether it is an instrument for achieving political goals, or the need for it is caused by objective processes that determine the development of political reality. To clarify the subject field of symbolic politics, it is necessary to continue the discussion about the content of basic concepts and adequate methodological principles.
96–107
ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ЭЛИТЫ В ФОКУСЕ
Intellectual Elites as a Target of the U.S. Public Diplomacy in the South Caucasus
Abstract
The study focuses on American international exchange programs aimed at the intellectual elites from the areas of social sciences and humanities, specifically the Fulbright Visiting Scholar Program (FVSP). Such intellectual elites potentially influence the opinions of students and younger generation in general; broadcast their views and values to political elites of their countries; shape dominating domestic approaches to research and education; and even create a wider social consensus over certain topics. Historic experience shows that the intensification of such activities in U.S. politics has always been prompted by the sense of a threat to national security. Thus, the increase of such programs aimed at the former Soviet republics following the collapse of the USSR is a manifestation of the same pattern with a possibility of Russia allying itself with other republics politically, economically and militarily being perceived as such a threat. Therefore, the core political reason behind those programs is to avoid such an undesirable scenario. The analysis of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the participants in the FVSP from Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan is conducted to illustrate how specifics and trends of the program’s implementation vary in different countries depending on the U.S. economic and geopolitical interests.
108-121
Dynamics of Privileges and Changes in the Daily Life of Holders of an Academic Degree in the Pre-war USSR (1934–1941)
Abstract
The problem of exceptions to the general law occupies a significant place in scientific research. Based on materials on the history of the Soviet gratification system – a system of benefits and privileges launched in the 1920s – one can study the history of attracting outstanding scientists by the new government, emergence of the mechanism for encouraging academic scientists, and reconstruct some details of the daily life of researchers and their families, awarded with benefits. By taking into account the gender factor, one can assess the degree of dependence or independence of scientists’ wives and women researchers, included in the circle of those encouraged by rations, rooms, apartments, dachas, and fashionable dresses. Dynamics of privileges in the academic community in 1934–1941 reflects the relationship between employees of academic institutes and their family members with the structures created by the authorities to «improve the life of scientists». Documents from the 1930s form the picture of the academic elite’s life, disclosing that it was not the ideology, but the connection between power and property that created the basis for the relations between science and society that determined the status of scientists in the USSR for many years.
122-132