Prognostic analysis of epidemiological indicators of the breast cancer among women in the Udmurt Republic

Aim. To study a number of epidemiological indicators of a breast cancer in the Udmurt Republic for their assessment and prediction of dynamics.

Methods. A retrospective analysis of data on a breast cancer of the population cancer register of the Udmurt Republic was performed in comparison with the corresponding statistics in the Russian Federation in 2017. For assessment of the received results the software BIOSTAT 4.3 was used. The forecast of epidemiological intensive indicators was calculated by methods of linear and polynomial trends.

Results. The ratio of breast cancer (17.8% in 2017) among the female population of the Republic was the highest among all malignant tumors. In 2017 the crude indicator of breast cancer morbidity equaled 69.80 per 100 000, and standardized one — 40.50 per 100 000. The standardized indicator of breast cancer incidence in Udmurtia was one of the lowest in Russia (77th rank place among 85 territorial entities). Crude mortality rate was 19.10 per 100 000, and standardized one — 10.00 per 100 000 (82nd rank place in the Russian Federation). The ratio of the patients actively revealed (among registered numbre) was 45.8% (the average Russian value, 38.7%). Early diagnostics of tumor was carried out in 71.6% of patients, stage 1 of the disease was revealed in 34.3% of cases (in the Russian Federation average data, 69.9% and 26.0%, respectively). Forecasting till 2022 shows a trend of further growth of detectability of malignant tumors of breast at early stages among female population in the Udmurt Republic. Lethality of patients during the first year from the moment of diagnosis was 5.4% (the average Russian indicator, 6.0%).

Conclusion. Morbidity and mortality rates of breast cancer in the Udmurt Republic in 2017 were lower than the average Russian indicators, and the statistical analysis does not show a negative trend till 2022.