卷 9, 编号 4 (2015)
STRATEGIES
Long-term Socioeconomic Challenges for Russia and Demand for New Technology
摘要
The primary long-term socio-economic challenges facing Russia – both global and country-specific in nature – drive demand for a range of technologies. We explore several groups of challenges, namely urbanization, demographic, socio-economic, the consequences of ageing, geopolitical, restricted access to key technological competences, climate change and its ecological consequences, as well as technological challenges largely associated with risks in ICT and biotech development, and the emergence of so-called ‘killer technologies’ that induce structural transformation in the economy.We identify four groups of key factors influencing demand for new technology. First, those factors that strengthening Russia’s role as a provider of key natural resources for the global economy. Second, of equal importance are those factors that support import substitution of various products of the global market, including electronic components, chemicals, and food products. Third, developing centres of technological competences plays a significant role, especially in export-oriented, manufacturing, and services sectors. These include nuclear energy, software, weapons and military equipment, military aircraft, and energy machinery. Finally, technological advancement would occur by integrating Russia within global technological value chains with external system integrators in pharmaceuticals, machine-building, petroleum products, and some ICT sub-sectors.
Forsajt. 2015;9(4):6-17
6-17
INNOVATION AND ECONOMY
Technological Innovation as a Factor of Demand for Energy Sources in Automotive Industry
摘要
The issue of forecasting demand for liquid fuels has become particularly significant in recent years with technological development and much tougher inter-fuel competition in the transport sector. In future, these developments could radically transform the oil, gas, and electricity markets. Therefore there is a greater need for improved forecasting methods that take into account the dynamics of market factors, primarily those related to the use of new technologies.We analyse the difficulties of forecasting demand for liquid fuels in conditions of uncertainty related to future technological developments in car transport. We classify the technologies driving demand for motor fuels by the nature of their impact on the demand for petroleum products: technologies aimed at improving the energy efficiency of traditional cars, as well as drivers of inter-fuel competition, both in terms of direct and indirect substitutes for petroleum products.To resolve the problem of limited input information, the methodology incorporates clustering instruments, which enable us to group countries according to certain criteria. The use of economic and mathematical tools with optimizing units enables us to make integrated calculations that model the market for liquid fuels and assess its interactions with the markets of other energy resources.Our proposed system for forecasting demand for liquid fuels, including petroleum products, can be used as an instrument to assess the future impact of technological innovation on the development of the oil industry when carrying out Foresight studies.
Forsajt. 2015;9(4):18-31
18-31
Prospects for Telemedicine Adoption: Prognostic Modeling as Exemplified by Rural Areas of USA
摘要
Experts predict that in the majority of countries state healthcare expenditures will continue to rise. Usage of telemedicine applications – the use of information and communications technologies (ICT) in order to provide clinical health care at a distance – will help optimize the costs of healthcare in the long-term. The main advantages of telemedicine include reducing the number of doctor’s errors, saving both patients and physicians time, and improving the efficiency of healthcare organizations. It also ensures timely and quality services for large segments of the population living in remote territories with difficult socio-economic conditions, particularly rural areas.The paper forecasts the adoption rate of telemedicine in US rural areas by using the Bass Model. The model is considered quite versatile as it can be used across a wide range of products and services. Nevertheless, the Bass model has some limitations related to how it estimates missing data. Calculation errors can be related to numerous barriers, which affect the adoption rate of telemedicine. These barriers include: high costs of production and exploitation of hi-tech equipment; physicians insufficiently prepared to adopt and use the latest technologies in their daily work; as well as possible concerns of patients about the quality of remote healthcare service.
Forsajt. 2015;9(4):32-41
32-41
The Epistemological Foundations of Music Piracy in the Digital Marketplace
摘要
This paper examines the fundamental epistemological gap between the consumers and producers of digitally based products. Using the music industry and the significance of digital products in this arena as a case study of evolving relationships between buyers and sellers, we evaluate the nature of ‘piracy’ from multiple perspectives: creators, intermediaries, distributors, and end consumers.Our study centres on the epistemological boundaries of these agents and actors, using existing evidence and qualitative research to examine the nature and limits of the epistemological reach of agents and actors in this digital marketplace. Our theoretical model is an adapted and applied version of Domain-Generality and Domain-Specificity in Personal Epistemology.We find a series of epistemological dissonances, driven by differing levels of understanding about (and access to) the underlying technological, legal, and social structures of an evolving marketplace. As a result of instability, these structures inevitably create various epistemological boundaries. Using the analytical framework developed, the case study of music piracy illustrates how identifying epistemological dissonance helps sellers develop strategies that could minimize the impact of piracy on their revenue streams.
Forsajt. 2015;9(4):42-53
42-53
SCIENCE
Identifying Directions for Russia’s Science and Technology Cooperation
摘要
Strong international partnerships are a key vehicle for building an efficient national innovation system.Successful global cooperation needs comprehensive knowledge of the features of the science and technology(ST) sphere in a changing environment of global division of labour, competition, and political climates.New realities and trends emerge, changing the established ‘rules of the game’ and calling for immediateactions from politicians, experts, and various economic actors.We propose an analytical approach to build and examine an empirical database. Drawing on bibliometricanalysis and expert survey tools, such an approach helps us identify the most promising areas for Russia’sinternational ST cooperation. We assess the scope for applying the proposed methodology. Based on thelatest available data in Web of Science, the international scientific citation indexing service (2014 andearly 2015), we compare the structure and variation over time of scientific specializations in Russia,leading ST countries, and several fast growing global economies.The cooperation priorities that we identified via matrix analysis were complemented with data from expertsurveys. The surveys highlighted the partner organizations, thematic areas, and instruments of STcooperation, which indicate some of the future possibilities for Russia’s international ST cooperation.
Forsajt. 2015;9(4):54-72
54-72
MASTER CLASS
Managerial Engagement with Scenario Planning: A Conceptual Consumption Approach
摘要
Scenario development is a widely used tool to reduce uncertainty while making decisions in high velocity environments. Nevertheless, manymanagers have a blinkered obsession with short-term performance objectives out of a fear of an unpredictable future, as well as a sheer inabilityto conceive of alternative futures generated in scenario planning exercises. Consequently, the latter have generated little value-added.The paper analyses the factors determining the willingness of decision makers to actively engage in processes of scenario planning. We suggestthat effective incentives to promote interest in scenario planning can be found if we consider decision makers as ‘consumers’ of certain ideas,concepts, and expectations. In particular, we put forward the hypothesis that the selection of appropriate targets for scenario planning, acommitment to achieving them, expectations of positive outcomes, and increasing the frequency of scenario planning exercises are very likely togenerate increased interest from managers and stakeholders in developing scenarios.Our results have been tested by means of an intuitive and logical approach to scenario planning. We believe that these findings can serve as aspringboard for future empirical research that could test the proposed hypotheses by using other in demand methodologies, including probabilisticmodified trends, competitive intelligence, and cross sectional effects analysis.
Forsajt. 2015;9(4):73-80
73-80