Agriculture in the Arid Regions of Eurasia and Global Warming: RCM Ensemble Projections for the Middle of the 21st Century

Abstract

The study presents the quantification of changes in agroclimatic conditions for the growth of varieties of cotton, spring wheat, and spring barley in Central Asia by the middle of the 21st century. The quantification is based on the ensemble of future climate projections provided by the regional climate model with the resolution of 25 km. The IPCC RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario is used. The expected agroclimatic consequences of global warming and the possibility of adapting agriculture in the Central Asian republics to future climate change are analyzed.