Influence of Climate Change on the Manifestation of Winter–Spring Stress Factors for Apricot in the Prikubansky Zone of Krasnodar Krai

Abstract

Abstract—Long-term changes in the risk of apricot damage by spring frosts in Krasnodar krai are analyzed. The changes in the probability ranks for the manifestation of low-temperature minima in two long-term periods (1985–2017) are revealed. It is shown that the change of ranks from the first to the second period for Krasnoshchekiy and Zherdel 1-22 varieties occurs practically identically throughout the research area, which indicates a very weak contribution of ecological differences between geographic points in the phenomenon of genotype-environment interaction. In 1985–2000, the New Jersey variety was the most unstable in all regions, with the exception of Ust-Labinsk. Apricot varieties differed in frost-resistance homeostasis. In periods 1 and 2, the Krasnoshchekiy variety had differences in the manifestation probability of low-temperature minima—29.7 and 35.3; Zherdel variety 1-22 was 25.2 and 29.5 and New Jersey variety was 25.0 and 41.1. The most homeostatic frost resistance was noted in the Zherdel variety 1-22.