Demographic Situation in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics

Determining the exact population size of Donbass is a complex task due to the ongoing armed conflict in the region and a significant time interval that has passed since the last All-Ukrainian Population Census conducted in 2001. As of 2024, relevant and reliable sources of information on the demographic situation in Donbass are extremely limited. In turn, the statistical bodies of the people's republics are limited to counting the population exclusively in the territories controlled by Russia. These circumstances necessitate the use of alternative methodological approaches to obtain reliable estimates of the population of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. The article considers the demographic dynamics and problems of estimating the permanent population of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic (hereinafter referred to as the DPR and LPR), which are part of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the topic is due to the lack of reliable statistical data and the complexity of population accounting in the context of the ongoing conflict in the republics. The objective of the study is to analyze the available data on the population of the DPR and LPR and to assess the demographic situation in the region. The work uses official data from the statistical services of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, as well as materials from foreign statistical organizations. The results of the study show that since the beginning of the conflict in 2014, the population of the DPR and LPR has significantly decreased due to migration outflow and increased mortality. According to the authors' estimates, at the beginning of 2023, the permanent population of the Donetsk People's Republic was about 4.2 million people, and that of the Luhansk People's Republic was 2.2 million people. In addition, the article shows the population dynamics of the DPR and LPR from 1939 to 2020 based on all-Union population censuses and modern current accounting data. This scientific work emphasizes the need to conduct full-scale population censuses in the republics to obtain accurate information on its size and structure. The problem to which the article is devoted is not only of academic interest, but also has an obvious practical component. The study of the most probable number of the actual population of modern Donbass is directly related to the assessment of its systemic potential and the ability of two regional societies to achieve sustainable socio-economic development.

demographic dynamics, population size, Donetsk People's Republic, Lugansk People's Republic, migration, birth rate, mortality