MODERN AND PROJECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF SEASONAL CYCLE OF ICE COVER IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC SEAS

V. A. Semenov; Семенов В. А.; E. A. Cherenkova; Черенкова Е. А.; T. A. Aldonina; Алдонина Т. А.

doi:10.31857/S2686739723600649

MODERN AND PROJECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF SEASONAL CYCLE OF ICE COVER IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC SEAS

Authors: Semenov V.A.¹^,2, Cherenkova E.A.¹^,2, Aldonina T.A.¹^,2
Affiliations:
1. Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences
2. A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences
Issue: Vol 511, No 1 (2023)
Pages: 112-118
Section: CLIMATIC PROCESSES
Submitted: 14.10.2023
Published: 01.07.2023
URL: https://bakhtiniada.ru/2686-7397/article/view/135819
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686739723600649
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/RZWGHG
ID: 135819

Cite item

Full Text

Open Access
Restricted Access

Access granted
Restricted Access

Subscription Access

Abstract
About the authors
References
Supplementary files
Statistics

Abstract

The characteristics of the sea ice conditions in the Seas of the Russian Arctic during the period of satellite measurements were studied and quantitative estimates of their changes in the second half of the 21st century were made based on the results of the CMIP6 climate models’ ensemble using aggressive and moderate scenarios of anthropogenic forcing, SSP585 and SSP245 respectively. It has been revealed that the dates of closing (DOC) of the sea ice cover and the length of the open water season (LOWS) are in general successfully reproduced by the ensemble of models. It is shown that DOC on average over the studied Seas will be observed about forty days later under SSP245 scenario and two months later under SSP585 scenario in 2061–2080 compared to 1981–2020 period. At the same time, the increase of LOWS is more than two and a half months under SSP245 scenario and almost four months under SSP585 scenario. The most significant changes in DOC are expected in the north of the Barents and Kara Seas, as well as in the northwest of the Laptev Sea: 2–2.5 months and 2.5–3 months later for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios respectively.

Keywords

dates of ice cover closing, length of open water period, climate models, satellite data, Seas of the Russian Arctic

References

Демидов А.Б., Гагарин В.И., Шеберстов С.В. Влияние регионального потепления на первичную продукцию Карского моря в последние две декады (2002‒2021 гг.) // Океанология. 2023. Т. 63. № 2. С. 1‒32.
Егоров А.Г. Летняя кромка льдов и осенние сроки устойчивого ледообразования в морях Лаптевых, Восточно-Сибирском и Чукотском в 1981–2018 гг. // Лед и снег. 2021. Т. 61. № 1. С. 117‒127.
Парфенова М.Р., Елисеев А.В., Мохов И.И. Изменения периода навигации в арктических морях на Северном морском пути в 21 веке: байесовы оценки по расчетам с ансамблем климатических моделей // ДАН. Науки о Земле. 2022. Т. 507. № 1. С. 118‒125.
Семенов В.А., Мартин Т., Беренс Л.К., Латиф М., Астафьева Е.С. Изменения площади арктических морских льдов в ансамблях климатических моделей CMIP3 и CMIP5 // Лед и снег. 2017. Т. 57. № 1. С. 77‒107.
Семенов В.А. Современные исследования климата Арктики: прогресс, смена концепций, актуальные задачи // Изв. РАН Физика атмосферы и океана. 2021. Т. 61. № 1. С. 21–33.
Сочнев О.Я., Корнишин К.А., Ефимов Я.О., Миро-нов Е.У., Порубаев В.С. Межгодовая изменчивость продолжительности безледного периода в юго-западной части Карского моря // Проблемы Арктики и Антарктики. 2019. Т. 65 (3). С. 239‒254.
Bliss A.C., Steele M., Peng G., Meier W.N., Dickinson S. Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record // Environmental Research Letters. 2019. V. 14. 045003.
Crawford A., Stroeve J., Smith A., Jahn A. Arctic Open-Water Periods Are Projected to Lengthen Dramatically by 2100 // Commun. Earth Environ. 2021. V. 2. P. 109.
Long M., Zhang L., Hu S., Qian S. Multi-Aspect assessment of CMIP6 models for Arctic sea ice simulation // Journal of Climate. 2021. V. 34. P. 1515–1529.
Matveeva T.A., Semenov V.A. Regional features of the arctic sea ice area changes in 2000–2019 versus 1979–1999 periods // Atmosphere. 2022. V. 13. P. 1434.
Meier W.N., Stroeve J. An updated assessment of the changing Arctic sea ice cover. Oceanography. 2022. V. 35. P. 1–10.
Notz D., SIMIP Community. Arctic sea ice in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters. 2020. V. 47. e2019GL086749.
O’Neil et al. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 // Geosci. Model Dev. 2016. V. 9. P. 3461–3482.
Peng G., Steele M., Bliss A.C., Meier W.N., Dickinson S. Temporal Means and Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Melt and Freeze Season Climate Indicators Using a Satellite Climate Data Record // Remote Sens. 2018. V. 10. P. 1328.
Smedsrud L.H., Esau I.N., Ingvaldsen R.B., Eldevik T., Haugan P.M., Li C., Lien V., Olsen A., Omar A., Otterå O.H., Risebrobakken B., Sandø A.B., Semenov V.A., Sorokina S.A. The role of the Barents Sea in the Arctic climate system. Rev. Geophysics // 2013. V. 51. P. 415–449.