On the impact of modern climate change on the increase of grain yields in Russia

In recent years, Russia has seen a steady increase in grain crop yields. A positive trend in meteorological conditions is often considered as the reason for this phenomenon, but there is almost no strong scientific evidence for it. The aim of investigation was to analyze changes in the potential (climatic) grain yields in the country for the period from 2000 to 2022. For this purpose, the simulation model of plant growth WOFOST was used, which allows assessing the impact of all meteorological parameters in a comprehensive manner. The assessment was carried out for a network of representative points (42 points) in different regions of the country for grain crops, taking into account daily meteorological parameters and soil type. Modeling was conducted at the level of potential yield, which takes into account the variation of meteorological parameters only, and it is believed that the limiting influence of other factors on the yield is absent. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the trends of potential yields have different direction in different regions of the country. The trend towards more favorable meteorological conditions for grain crops is observed for the North Caucasus, the lower Volga region, Western Siberia and the Far East, while in the Central and Central Black Earth districts, the upper Volga region, as well as in the south of Central Siberia in recent years there is a drop in the potential yields. The growth of grain yields in recent years agrees well with the trend of changes in agrometeorological conditions in most grain-producing regions of the country. Unidirectional trends in meteorological potential and statistical yields are absent only in the regions of central European Russia, where the role of the climatic factor in grain yield fluctuations is less significant, and where one can assume the effect of measures taken by the government of the country to support and develop agriculture.

WOFOST, grain yields, long-term trend of agrometeorological conditions, Russia, simulation modeling, WOFOST