The impact of state agglomeration policy on long-term trends of population changes in Russia

The study analyzes the impact of state agglomeration policy on demographic trends in Russia, with a special focus on the relationship between urbanization and birth rate. The study is based on data on population size and differences in demographic indicators between urban and rural areas, and includes a forecast of possible changes in the demographic situation up to 2100 using scenario modeling methods. The purpose of the study is to identify the key consequences of the agglomeration approach for long-term demographic development in line with the new “Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 with a forecast up to 2036”, as well as to assess possible approaches to adjusting state policy in the context of depopulation. The study materials include Rosstat’s estimated data on population size and components of its change, including total fertility rates for urban and rural populations. Methods of forecasting demographic dynamics components were applied, in particular SARIMA (implemented in Python) for fertility forecasting. The population is projected using the cohort-component method (“age shifting”) with the Spectrum software (DemProj module). Three main scenarios are considered: continuation of the current urbanization trend, maintenance of a static share of urban and rural population, and a “deurbanization” scenario as a possible alternative. The results show that given the current low birth rates and zero migration growth, Russia’s population will continue to decline under all three scenarios. The issue of declining birth rates in cities is particularly acute, exacerbated by the consolidation of agglomerations. It is concluded that the ongoing urbanization policy, combined with low birth rates, intensifies the country’s depopulation, while a deurbanization policy cannot radically change the demographic situation.