Diagnostic criteria for optimizing treatment tactics for children with traumatic splenic ruptures

BACKGROUND: Damage to the spleen is the leading cause of abdominal trauma in children. This often becomes the main indication for splenectomy. This article addresses concerns on the safety of conservative treatment of these injuries in children. Most studies have found that asplenization results in the complete loss of the immunological and hematological functions of the spleen. Thus, spleen-preserving surgeries are crucial to prevent post-splenectomy hyposplenism and associated life-threatening complications.

AIM: This study aimed to develop a mathematical model using logistic regression to determine aggregate variables associated with the possibility of surgical treatment and identify safe shock index parameters for the conservative treatment of traumatic splenic ruptures in children.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective study included 91 patients with traumatic splenic rupture: 80 (87.9%) children received conservative treatment and 11 (12.1%) underwent surgical treatment. The age of the children was 11 (8; 13) years; there were 3.3 times more boys (70 versus 21). To assess the need for surgical treatment, an analysis of categorical variables was conducted using a mathematical model using logistic regression.

RESULTS: Increased shock index (β = −0.264 ± 0.083; t(86) = −3.191; p = 0.002) and the need for blood transfusion (β = 0.464 ± 0.089; t(86) = 5.218; p = 0.001) were cumulative factors associated with a high possibility of surgical treatment of splenic ruptures in children. With the combination of parameters of increased shock index and blood transfusion for surgical treatment, moderate sensitivity was determined at 85.7% (95% CI: 52.1–99.6; p = 0.001) and a positive predictive value at 75% (95% CI: 34.9–96.8). In the absence of these factors, the probability of conservative treatment of children with splenic ruptures reached 100% (specificity: 97.5%; 95% CI: 91.1–99.7; p = 0.001). When summarizing the identified parameters, the area under the curve was 0.941 ± 0.026 (95% CI: 0.872–0.980), and the assessment of the model’s suitability showed a positive test (χ² = 32.7; p = 0.264). In nonoperative treatment, the frequency of identified cumulative factors was 2.5% (n = 2). Safe shock index parameters for successful conservative treatment of splenic ruptures in children have been determined: SIPA <1.1 (age up to 6 years), <0.85 (7–12 years), and <0.83 (over 13 years).

CONCLUSIONS: An increased shock index and the need for blood transfusion are combined factors that determine the high probability of surgical treatment for traumatic ruptures of the spleen in children. In nonoperative treatment, the frequency of identified cumulative factors was 2.5%, which indicates a strong argument for justifying the safety of conservative therapy.