Extreme Level Fluctuations in the Seas of the Russian Arctic in the Context of Global Climate Change

The presented article is devoted to the results of detailed studies of the features of extreme sea level fluctuations in the Russian Arctic under the conditions of global climate change. Estimates of the rate of mean sea level rise in the Arctic are obtained from the monthly mean sea level data at coastal tide gauges and satellite altimetry. It was found that for the Arctic Ocean coast from the Kara to the Chukchi Seas, the highest tides take place in the Khatanga Bay (Preobrazheniya Island), 131 cm. In the White, Kara, Laptev and Chukchi Seas, the seasonal variability of harmonic tidal constants was studied; it occurs due to changes in hydrometeorological conditions during the year. The ADCIRC hydrodynamic model was adapted for the conditions of the Laptev Sea. Numerical modeling of sea level oscillations from 1980 to 2000 was performed. According to the simulation results, the maximum ranges of residual sea level fluctuations are observed both for the total level and at the mouth of the Khatanga (489 cm) and Oleneksky Bay (444 cm). Based on the data of coastal observations and numerical modeling, the authors obtained estimates of extreme level fluctuations with different recurrence periods.