电邮这篇文章 Clinical and laboratory predictors of poor outcome in COVID-19 patients
- 作者: Lizinfeld I.A.1, Pshenichnaya N.Y.1, Bunyaeva O.V.2, Shilkina I.M.2, Shmailenko O.A.3, Gopatsa G.V.1, Siziakin D.V.3,4, Chigaeva E.V.3,4
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隶属关系:
- Central Research Institute of Epidemiology
- Domodedovo Central City Hospital
- City Hospital № 1 N.A. Semashko, City Hospital No. 1 named after N.A. Semashko of Rostov-on-Don
- Rostov State Medical University
- 期: 卷 27, 编号 1 (2022)
- 页面: 5-14
- 栏目: Original study articles
- URL: https://bakhtiniada.ru/1560-9529/article/view/87621
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/EID87621
- ID: 87621
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详细
BACKGROUND: Many researchers have reported numerous predictors of severe COVID-19 and poor prognosis. However, to make a quick decision, the doctor needs to have a certain set of data that he can use in routine practice to predict the outcome in patients with this disease.
AIMS: This study aimed to develop and describe a predictive model for determining an unfavorable outcome in COVID-19 patients based on age, objective, laboratory and instrumental data, and comorbid pathology.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study included 447 patients with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 who underwent inpatient treatment in the period from March 2020 to January 2021. Discriminant analysis was used with cross-validation to build a predictive model.
RESULTS: Based on discriminant analysis, a predictive model was developed to predict the outcome in patients with COVID-19. Evaluation of clinical findings, such as respiratory rate, heart rate, SpO2, laboratory data, and computed tomography results on admission to the hospital, showed their significance as predictors of poor outcome. The discrimination constant was 0.4435. The sensitivity of the model is 96.4%, and the specificity is 90.4%.
CONCLUSION: The developed model will help medical institutions predict the outcome of the disease when a patient is admitted to the hospital and, on this basis, optimize and prioritize the provision of necessary medical care.
作者简介
Irina Lizinfeld
Central Research Institute of Epidemiology
Email: irinalizinfeld@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8114-1002
SPIN 代码: 2046-1407
MD
俄罗斯联邦, 3A, Novogireyevskaya street, Moscow, 111123Natalia Pshenichnaya
Central Research Institute of Epidemiology
Email: natalia-pshenichnaya@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2570-711X
SPIN 代码: 5633-7265
MD, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor
俄罗斯联邦, 3A, Novogireyevskaya street, Moscow, 111123Olga Bunyaeva
Domodedovo Central City Hospital
Email: olya-bunyaeva@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4889-5566
MD
俄罗斯联邦, DomodedovoIrina Shilkina
Domodedovo Central City Hospital
Email: shim-48@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9900-038X
MD
俄罗斯联邦, DomodedovoOlga Shmailenko
City Hospital № 1 N.A. Semashko, City Hospital No. 1 named after N.A. Semashko of Rostov-on-Don
Email: Shmailenko@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4680-590X
MD
俄罗斯联邦, Rostov-on-DonGalina Gopatsa
Central Research Institute of Epidemiology
Email: GopatsaG@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8703-7671
MD, Cand. Sci. (Med.)
俄罗斯联邦, 3A, Novogireyevskaya street, Moscow, 111123Dmitrii Siziakin
City Hospital № 1 N.A. Semashko, City Hospital No. 1 named after N.A. Semashko of Rostov-on-Don; Rostov State Medical University
Email: Siziakin@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7125-1374
SPIN 代码: 8681-3345
MD, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor
俄罗斯联邦, Rostov-on-Don; Rostov-on-DonEvgeniia Chigaeva
City Hospital № 1 N.A. Semashko, City Hospital No. 1 named after N.A. Semashko of Rostov-on-Don; Rostov State Medical University
编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: ChigaevaEV@gmail.com
MD, Cand. Sci. (Med.)
俄罗斯联邦, Rostov-on-Don; Rostov-on-Don参考
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