RUSSIA’S TECHNOLOGICAL SOVEREIGNTY AND LEADERSHIP: STRATEGIC INTENTIONS AND DOMESTIC CONSTRAINTS

The feasibility of Russia’s goals to achieve technological sovereignty and technological leadership by 2030 is assessed in the article, focusing on internal economic constraints. It identifies four stages in the evolution of Russian technology policy since the late 1990s, tracing its consistent transition from a market-oriented to a mobilization model. The authors analyze key indicators of investment and innovation activity in recent years, revealing systemic problems with the economy’s technological modernization; examine Russia’s position in the Global Innovation Index, identifying its level of innovation development relative to global technological leaders and leading BRICS countries. The need for Russia to escape the middle-technology trap is emphasized as means to overcome the technological deceleration trend. The findings suggest that even in the absence of sanctions, Russia’s prospects for technological leadership depend on structural transformations in its economic model, while a baseline scenario would ensure only limited technological sovereignty at the cost of increasing technological lag in civilian sectors relative to global standards.