Analysis of the relationship between financial accessibility indicators and the results of the Russian presidential election

Background. This study analyzes the relationship between indicators of financial accessibility among the population of Russian regions and the results of presidential elections in the Russian Federation between 2000 and 2024. The study uses a comprehensive approach, including correlation and variance analysis (ANOVA) of data from 75 regions of Russia over five election cycles.

The study is based on official data from Rosstat, the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, on ten key indicators of financial accessibility, adjusted per capita, logarithmized, and standardized. The dependent variable used was the share of votes cast for the incumbent president, Vladimir Putin, in each of the periods under review.

The purpose of the study is to identify and analyze the relationships between indicators of financial accessibility of the population in Russian regions and the results of presidential elections in the Russian Federation between 2000 and 2024, as well as to determine the degree of influence of various financial indicators on the electoral preferences of citizens in a changing economic and political situation.

Research method. A comprehensive approach was used to analyze the relationship between financial accessibility indicators and the results of presidential elections, including correlation and variance analysis (ANOVA).

Results. The results of the analysis revealed the evolution of the influence of financial factors on electoral behavior. In 2000, there were no correlations, which is explained by the economic instability of the 1990s and the novelty of the political leader. Since 2004, significant correlations have been found with the indicators of bank deposits of individuals and legal entities. By 2012, the range of influencing factors had expanded to include mortgage debt and foreign currency transactions. In 2018, the impact of the indicators decreased to the average level of correlation, which is associated with the introduction of international sanctions. In 2024, ruble deposits of individuals became the most significant factor.

The key result of the study is the discovery of predominantly negative correlations between indicators of financial accessibility and electoral support, which may indicate a critical attitude of the financially active population to the economic policy being pursued. The analysis of variance confirmed the statistical significance of the identified relationships for all the periods under review, with the exception of 2000.

The analysis showed that in 2000, no significant correlations were found between financial accessibility indicators and the share of votes for V. Putin, which can be explained by economic instability and the novelty of the political leader. Starting in 2004, significant correlations with bank deposit indicators were identified. In 2012, the range of factors expanded to include mortgage loans and foreign currency transactions. In 2018, the impact of financial indicators on election results weakened due to the introduction of international sanctions. In 2024, ruble deposits by individuals became the most significant factor.

Scope of application of results. The results of the study can be used for further analysis of the relationship between economic policy and electoral behavior, as well as for developing recommendations to improve financial accessibility and stimulate political activity among the population.