Development of Cascade Cyclogenesis in the Northwestern Sea of Japan

Аннотация

The physical mechanisms which led to the explosive consecutive (cascade) cyclogenesis of “the major southern cyclone–the mesocyclone” pair over the Sea of Japan on January 17-21, 2016 are considered. The important role of oceanographic (the thermal state of the northwestern Sea of Japan) and synoptic (the strong cold ultrapolar invasion of Arctic air) factors is demonstrated. The interaction of these factors led to heavy precipitation, storm wind, and intense sea waves. The numerical experiments using the WRF-NMM atmosphere model and various initial conditions for the Sea of Japan surface temperature allowed identifying the driving atmospheric and marine factors needed for the development of cascade cyclogenesis. It is shown that the increased heat accumulation in the sea combined with ultrapolar invasions can initiate the cascade cyclogenesis development. Perhaps, these regional atmospheric and oceanic processes and their interaction response to the climate change of the recent decades.