Zoning uncertanties in alert survey determination of earthquake parameters for increasing reliability of near real time loss simulation
- Autores: Frolova N.I.1, Malaeva N.S.1, Kolomiets M.V.2, Gabsatarova I.P.2, Ryzhikova M.I.2, Suchshev S.P.3, Ugarov A.N.3
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Afiliações:
- Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience of the Russian Academy of Sciences
- Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences
- Bauman Moscow State Technical University
- Edição: Nº 5 (2024)
- Páginas: 22-33
- Seção: NATURAL AND TECHNONATURAL PROCESSES
- URL: https://bakhtiniada.ru/0869-7809/article/view/285058
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869780924050031
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/QPMKLL
- ID: 285058
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Resumo
This paper reports the uncertainties in earthquake parameter determination by alert surveys. The uncertainties dynamics in event location and depth determination is analyzed, as well as the possibility of their usage for near real time loss simulation is estimated. The relevance of this study follows from the needed reliable estimates of possible loss due to earthquakes in order to aid the decision making process for the response and the proper choice of search and rescue strategy for the heavily affected settlements. The study is aimed at zoning the uncertainties in event parameters determination by alert surveys and at assessing their applicability in near real time consequences simulation. The paper provides the results of comparison between the earthquake parameters determination by the Earthquake Emergency Alert Service (EEAS) of the Federal Research Center – Geological Survey of Russia (FRC GS RAS) and those presented in the Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (GEM-ISC). Positive dynamics in parameters uncertainty is registered for the period 2010–2019 as compared to the previous decade. The Flynn–Engdahl zones with minimum values of uncertainties which may be used in order to get reliable loss estimations in near real time mode were identified.
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Sobre autores
N. Frolova
Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: frolovanina7@gmail.com
Rússia, Bldg. 2, 13, Ulansky All., Moscow, 101000
N. Malaeva
Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: frolovanina7@gmail.com
Rússia, Bldg. 2, 13, Ulansky All., Moscow, 101000
M. Kolomiets
Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: kolmar@gsras.ru
Rússia, 189, Lenin Ave., Obninsk, Kaluga Region, 249035
I. Gabsatarova
Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: kolmar@gsras.ru
Rússia, 189, Lenin Ave., Obninsk, Kaluga Region, 249035
M. Ryzhikova
Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: kolmar@gsras.ru
Rússia, 189, Lenin Ave., Obninsk, Kaluga Region, 249035
S. Suchshev
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Email: Sersan150@mail.ru
Rússia, 5, 2nd Baumanskaya St., Moscow, 105005
A. Ugarov
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Email: Sersan150@mail.ru
Rússia, 5, 2nd Baumanskaya St., Moscow, 105005
Bibliografia
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